Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Dr. Joe Webb: Statistical Trends in Print

http://blogs.whattheythink.com/economics/2013/07/statistical-trends-in-print-or-dr-joes-mixed-media-message/
The trends in commercial printing demand are often up to debate, but sometimes statistical analysis can be helpful in understanding them better. Economic events are often the reasons given for shifts in demand and shipments, but that’s much to nebulous. We know there are more specific issues, and there is too much general evidence that strong economic growth only makes the adoption rate of digital technologies and media stronger.
In some recent analysis, the regression model of real GDP and CPI-adjusted printing shipments shows that for every billion dollar increase in real GDP results in a -$19.4 million change in commercial print shipments. This regression equation has r²= 71.9%, which is a strong statistical relationship, no matter how unsatisfying (or confusing) the thought is that a growing economy might actually hurt an industry rather than benefit it.