The US Commerce Department issued its annual update of manufacturing shipments data last Friday. The bottom line is that they increased each of the last two years by about $1 billion, but the increases were not enough to increase annual shipments after inflation. The revision process is constant. Every year, five historical years are revised, with the greatest changes to the most recent three years and the first three months of the current year. Last year, the reported data showed a new seasonality, with May becoming a more prominent month. This was quite a surprise for us, as March had become the most important month of the year. Years prior, the big retail printing season related to Christmas and holiday sales, had been the most important printing season, but it gradually diminished by 2008. This left March to be a big month, probably driven by projects started with new corporate projects in January. Last year’s revisions revised shipments down, even those of the beginning of the year, and the Commerce Department reported a big May, so much so that it became the best month of the year. This is still hard for us to understand, but from looking at the historical data it could just be that May sales have just declined at a lesser rate in recent years. It’s not May sales have been increasing, it’s that they’re just down slightly less than other months.
Thursday, May 23, 2013
US Comm Revises Printing Shipments
US Commerce Department Revises Last Two Years of Printing Shipments Up Slightly (Dr. Joe):
The US Commerce Department issued its annual update of manufacturing shipments data last Friday. The bottom line is that they increased each of the last two years by about $1 billion, but the increases were not enough to increase annual shipments after inflation. The revision process is constant. Every year, five historical years are revised, with the greatest changes to the most recent three years and the first three months of the current year. Last year, the reported data showed a new seasonality, with May becoming a more prominent month. This was quite a surprise for us, as March had become the most important month of the year. Years prior, the big retail printing season related to Christmas and holiday sales, had been the most important printing season, but it gradually diminished by 2008. This left March to be a big month, probably driven by projects started with new corporate projects in January. Last year’s revisions revised shipments down, even those of the beginning of the year, and the Commerce Department reported a big May, so much so that it became the best month of the year. This is still hard for us to understand, but from looking at the historical data it could just be that May sales have just declined at a lesser rate in recent years. It’s not May sales have been increasing, it’s that they’re just down slightly less than other months.
The US Commerce Department issued its annual update of manufacturing shipments data last Friday. The bottom line is that they increased each of the last two years by about $1 billion, but the increases were not enough to increase annual shipments after inflation. The revision process is constant. Every year, five historical years are revised, with the greatest changes to the most recent three years and the first three months of the current year. Last year, the reported data showed a new seasonality, with May becoming a more prominent month. This was quite a surprise for us, as March had become the most important month of the year. Years prior, the big retail printing season related to Christmas and holiday sales, had been the most important printing season, but it gradually diminished by 2008. This left March to be a big month, probably driven by projects started with new corporate projects in January. Last year’s revisions revised shipments down, even those of the beginning of the year, and the Commerce Department reported a big May, so much so that it became the best month of the year. This is still hard for us to understand, but from looking at the historical data it could just be that May sales have just declined at a lesser rate in recent years. It’s not May sales have been increasing, it’s that they’re just down slightly less than other months.
